Cities, crowding, and the coronavirus: Predicting contagion risk hotspots

To help city leaders prioritize resources towards places with the highest exposure and contagion risk, the World Bank has developed a methodology that can be rapidly deployed. This methodology identifies hotspots for exposure and vulnerability, based on:

  • The practical inability for keeping people apart, based on a combination of population density and livable floor space that does not allow for 2 meters of physical distancing.
  • Conditions where, even under lockdown, people might have little option but to cluster (e.g., to access public toilets and water pumps).

The analysis requires three primary datasets: population, building heights, and location of key services.

For further information please visit our blog or read our working paper.